Exchange rates

Korea's economy grew more slowly, not faster, when the won weakened against the dollar

Since 1998, with the won floating, Korea's GDP grew 2.0% a year on average in quarters when the won was weaker than a year earlier, against 5.1% when it was stronger, while Hyun Song Shin's research shows how a weaker currency can also hurt through finance.

datasteg desk · AI-assisted

14 min read · 20 Oct 2026

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Key numbers

2.0%^{Source 1,Source 2}
average real GDP growth in quarters when the won was weaker against the dollar than a year earlier, 1998–2026 (5.1% when it was stronger)
−0.7%^{Source 2,Source 3}
average change in real investment in those weak-won quarters (+5.2% when the won was stronger)
8^{Source 1,Source 2}
quarters in which the won was weaker against the dollar than a year before, out of the 10 quarters since 1981 in which GDP shrank

Key findings

Since 1998, Korea's GDP grew 2.0% a year on average in quarters when the won was weaker against the dollar than a year earlier, against 5.1% when it was stronger; exports and investment followed the same pattern, and the gaps mostly closed a year later⁠^{Source 1,Source 2,Source 3,Source 4}.
Most quarters in which GDP shrank came with a weaker won: eight of the 10 quarters since 1981 came when the won was weaker against the dollar than a year before. The won's biggest falls came mostly in crises, when the same shock hit both the won and growth, so the comparison shows timing, not the won's effect⁠^{Source 1,Source 2}.
In 1997–98 and 2008–09 Korea owed the world more than it owned, and the falling won came with soaring corporate bond spreads over government bonds, up to roughly 935bp (approximate, as the government rate was then managed), and falling investment⁠^{Source 2,Source 3,Source 5,Source 6,Source 7,Source 8}. That is consistent with the financial channel, which Shin's BIS research links to a sharp drop in investment⁠^{Source 9}. In 1997–98, small firms with more short-term foreign debt fared worse⁠^{Source 10}.
From 1981 to 1997 exports grew faster a year after a weaker won (15.4% against 8.5%), but not since 1998 (6.7% against 8.5%)⁠^{Source 2,Source 4}. From February 1985 to April 1987, around the Plaza Accord, the yen came to cost 82.7% more won, while won per dollar, after weakening in 1985, ended about where it started (+0.5%)⁠^{Source 2,Source 11}. In 2025, 84.2% of exports were settled in dollars⁠^{Source 12,Source 13}. From October 1997 to January 1998 and from December 2021 to October 2022, a weaker won showed up mostly as higher won prices, not lower prices abroad⁠^{Source 14,Source 15}.
Korea has been a net creditor since Q3 2014, which Bank of Korea economists, using data to mid-2025, say has weakened the old channel⁠^{Source 2,Source 5,Source 6,Source 16}. By mid-2026 the overall position had shrunk to 3.1% of GDP as foreign-held Korean shares rose in value, though debt claims still exceeded foreign debts by 18.0% of GDP (preliminary figures)⁠^{Source 2,Source 5,Source 6,Source 17,Source 18}. In 2022 margin calls on currency hedges tightened Korean money markets, and in September 2022 banks paid far more of them than usual⁠^{Source 16,Source 19}. Over 2022 the corporate spread over government bonds also rose, from 61bp in December 2021 to 167bp in December 2022⁠^{Source 7,Source 8}.

The question

The question we answered

Since 1980, did Korea's exports and economy really grow faster when the won weakened against the dollar and all trading partners, and what do Hyun Song Shin's financial-channel studies and Korea's currency episodes say about how a weaker won can also hurt?

What we looked at

How Korea's exports and economy grew when the won was weakening and when it was strengthening from 1981 to mid-2026, and what Hyun Song Shin's and other BIS research says about why a weaker currency can tighten a country's financial conditions.

A note on the question. History does not show a stronger economy when the won was weak: since 1998 GDP grew 2.0% a year on average in quarters when the won was weaker than a year before, against 5.1% when it was stronger. Most quarters in which GDP shrank came with a weaker won, but the won's biggest falls came mostly in crises, when the same shock hit both the won and growth, so this shows timing, not the won's effect.

Five episodes of a weak won

The won's history since 1980 is a handful of big swings, each with its own cause. We measure it as won per dollar, so a rise means a weaker won; a dollar cost 552.0 won in January 1980⁠^{Source 2}. The rate was managed until the Asian financial crisis: in March 1990 a 'market average rate' system replaced a peg to a basket of currencies⁠^{Source 13}. Since that crisis the won has floated.

From October 1997 to January 1998, won per dollar rose 85.1%, to 1,706.8 won, still the weakest monthly average on record⁠^{Source 2}. It rose 43.5% from July 2008 to March 2009 and 20.5% from December 2021 to October 2022. In June 2026 it reached 1,527.3 won, the weakest since February 1998, then fell back 11.0% to 1,359.0 won in September⁠^{Source 2}. The chart below marks five big episodes; in the first, 1985–87, the won ended weaker in real terms against its trading partners, not against the dollar.

Figure 1

The won's sharpest falls against the dollar came in 1997–98 and 2008–09; in June 2026, at 1,527.3 won per dollar, it was at its weakest since February 1998

Won per US dollar since 1980Won per dollar, monthly averages, Jan 1980–Sep 2026

How to read this chart. Higher means a weaker won: more won are needed to buy one dollar. Shaded periods are the five episodes compared in the table further down.

Shaded: Plaza Accord and the yen's rise (Feb 1985–Apr 1987); Asian financial crisis (Oct 1997–Jan 1998); global financial crisis (Jul 2008–Mar 2009); strong dollar (Dec 2021–Oct 2022); weak won (Jan 2024–Jun 2026). Each runs from its start month to the won's weakest month in the episode (1985–87: to the end of the won's real effective fall).

From 1980 to 1997 the rate was managed: first a currency-basket peg, then, from March 1990, a market-average rate system; the won has floated since the Asian financial crisis. Monthly averages; daily extremes were wider.

Left out: the won's real effective value (an index against all trading partners, a different unit; never a second axis) is compared in the text and the episodes table; won per 100 yen is in the exports section.

Source: Bank of Korea, ECOS · Data to Sep 2026^{Source 2,Source 13,Source 19}

About this chart

Definition: Won per US dollar, trading base rate, monthly average.
Calculation: As published.
Provider: Bank of Korea, ECOS
Series: 731Y004/M/0000001/0000100
Period: Jan 1980 – Sep 2026
Last observation: Sep 2026
Retrieved: 19 Oct 2026
Licence: ECOS Open API terms: reuse allowed with attribution
Sources: Won per US dollar, monthly average (Seoul fixing rate), Understanding Korea’s Long-Run Real Exchange Rate Behavior, Chang Yong Rhee: Korea's integrated policy framework story - extending into the effective lower bound era

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Weak against the dollar is not always weak against everyone, as the real effective exchange rate shows: it measures the won against all trading partners at once, allowing for differences in inflation. From February 1985 to April 1987 won per dollar weakened 6.6% by October 1985 and then came back, ending about where it started (+0.5%)⁠^{Source 2}. Over the same period the won's real effective value fell 28.0% as the yen soared, so in real terms the won fell far more against its main trading partners taken together than it did against the dollar⁠^{Source 20}. From December 2021 to October 2022, while won per dollar rose 20.5%, the real effective value fell only 6.6%⁠^{Source 2,Source 21}. Irwin and Obstfeld note that at the time the won's real effective value was not far below its 2010–12 average, years that were not crisis years for the Korean economy⁠^{Source 13}.

Weak-won quarters were slower quarters

Since 1998, with the won floating, a weaker won has gone with slower, not faster, growth. We call a quarter weak-won when a dollar cost more won, on average, than a year earlier, and strong-won otherwise. From 1998 to mid-2026, 52 quarters were weak-won and 62 quarters strong-won⁠^{Source 2}.

In weak-won quarters real GDP grew 2.0% from a year earlier on average, against 5.1% in strong-won quarters⁠^{Source 1,Source 2}. Real goods exports grew 3.6%, against 11.7%⁠^{Source 4}. Investment, meaning spending on buildings, machinery, equipment and intellectual property such as software, shrank 0.7%, against growth of 5.2%⁠^{Source 3}.

A year later most of the gaps had closed: four quarters on, GDP grew 3.7% after weak-won quarters against 4.2% after strong ones⁠^{Source 1}. Exports grew 6.7% against 8.5%, and investment growth was about even⁠^{Source 3,Source 4}. The chart below shows all six comparisons.

Figure 2

Since 1998, exports, GDP and investment all grew more slowly in quarters when the won was weaker than a year before; a year later the gaps had mostly closed

Average growth in weak-won and strong-won quarters, 1998–2026Real growth from a year earlier, %, average over Q1 1998–Q2 2026; in the same quarter and four quarters later

How to read this chart. Each row compares average growth in quarters when the won was weaker against the dollar than a year earlier (filled dot) with quarters when it was stronger (hollow dot). Each 'a year on' row, under its measure, shows growth four quarters later. A filled dot to the left means slower growth in weak-won quarters.

52 weak-won and 62 strong-won quarters in the same-quarter rows; 48 and 62 in the 'a year on' rows, because the last four quarters have no growth figure four quarters later yet.

These are descriptive averages, not the won's effect: weak-won quarters include the 1998 and 2008–09 crises. Before the float (1981–97) exports grew faster in the year after a weak-won quarter; that period is in the text, to keep one exchange-rate regime per chart.

Exports are real goods exports; investment is real gross fixed capital formation.

Source: Bank of Korea, ECOS; datasteg calculation · Data to Q2 2026^{Source 1,Source 2,Source 3,Source 4}

About this chart

Definition: Real goods exports and real GDP, growth from the same quarter a year earlier (not seasonally adjusted); real gross fixed capital formation; won per US dollar, monthly averages.
Calculation: A quarter is weak-won when the quarterly average of won per dollar is above its level a year earlier, strong-won otherwise. Each dot is the simple mean of growth over those quarters (same quarter) or over the quarters four later ('a year on'), 1998-Q1 to 2026-Q2. Investment growth = (quarter ÷ same quarter a year earlier − 1) × 100.
Provider: Bank of Korea, ECOS
Series: 731Y004/M/0000001/0000100, 200Y102/Q/10225, 200Y102/Q/10211, 200Y110/Q/1020110
Period: Q1 1998 – Q2 2026
Last observation: Q2 2026
Retrieved: 19 Oct 2026
Licence: ECOS Open API terms: reuse allowed with attribution
Sources: Won per US dollar, monthly average (Seoul fixing rate), Korea real goods export growth, year on year (national accounts, not seasonally adjusted), Korea real GDP growth, year on year (not seasonally adjusted), Korea real gross fixed capital formation, chained 2020 won (not seasonally adjusted)

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Before the float, exports grew faster a year after a weak-won quarter: from 1981 to 1997 they grew 15.4% a year later, against 8.5% a year after a strong-won quarter⁠^{Source 2,Source 4}. But in the weak-won quarters themselves GDP grew more slowly, 8.9% against 10.6%⁠^{Source 1}. So did investment, 9.8% against 15.0%⁠^{Source 3}.

Measured against all trading partners, the pattern since 1998 is the same: GDP grew 2.2% in weak quarters against 5.0% in strong ones⁠^{Source 1,Source 21}. Since 1998, in the 11 quarters when won per dollar rose more than fifteen per cent over the year, GDP shrank 0.6% on average and investment 6.4%⁠^{Source 1,Source 2,Source 3}. Since 1998, in the 28 quarters when it fell more than five per cent, GDP grew 6.5%⁠^{Source 1,Source 2}. These averages pool very different shocks, which the next sections take apart.

What Shin's research says

Hyun Song Shin and his co-authors at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) argue that a weaker currency against the dollar can hurt an economy through finance, the opposite way to trade⁠^{Source 9}. Shin, now Governor of the Bank of Korea⁠^{Source 22}, made this case in BIS studies and speeches before taking office⁠^{Source 9,Source 23}.

A chipmaker selling in dollars earns more won when the won weakens, so it can cut prices abroad or keep a fatter margin. That is the trade channel. A firm that borrowed in dollars owes more in won, so lenders see it as riskier and lend less. That is the financial channel.

In a 2015 speech in Seoul, Shin described how the links that ease credit when the dollar weakens work in reverse when it strengthens⁠^{Source 23}:

“However, when the dollar strengthens, these same relationships go into reverse and conspire to tighten financial conditions.”
— BIS, 2015⁠^{Source 23}

The rate that matters for this channel, he argued, is the one against the dollar, the main borrowing currency, not a currency's average against trading partners⁠^{Source 23}.

The core study, a 2018 BIS working paper by Avdjiev, Bruno, Koch and Shin, covers dozens of emerging economies, Korea among them⁠^{Source 9}. It finds that a large rise in the dollar, of one standard deviation, is followed by investment growth about five percentage points lower the next quarter⁠^{Source 9}. Among firms that rely on outside finance, the extra fall in investment is large and significant in emerging Asia but not in emerging Europe⁠^{Source 9}. GDP growth contracts too⁠^{Source 9}, and the broad dollar, the dollar against many currencies at once, is the most relevant exchange rate for investment⁠^{Source 9}.

The research has limits. The core paper says that in additional tests, which it does not show, the financial channel outweighs the trade channel overall⁠^{Source 9}, but its conclusion says only that the hit to investment may temper the gains from trade⁠^{Source 9}. Firms in tradable sectors invest more after the dollar rises, which is consistent with the trade channel⁠^{Source 9}. Another BIS study finds the financial channel only partly offsets the trade channel⁠^{Source 24}. No study we read estimates both channels together for Korea alone⁠^{Source 24,Source 25}, and Shin himself urged care about causation⁠^{Source 23}.

When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story

Korea's own crises look like the financial channel at work, though they cannot prove it. Of the 10 quarters since 1981 in which GDP shrank from a year earlier, eight came when the won was weaker against the dollar than a year before⁠^{Source 1,Source 2}. The deepest, −7.1% in Q2 1998, came in the Asian crisis; the list also includes the pandemic, and the worst quarter of 2008–09 ranks only 6th lowest⁠^{Source 1}.

In the third quarter of 1997 Korea's net international investment position, what it owns abroad minus what it owes, was −12.5% of GDP⁠^{Source 2,Source 5,Source 6}. In the second quarter of 1997, foreign debt due within a year equalled 12.4% of GDP, 48% of the total⁠^{Source 2,Source 6,Source 26,Source 27}. As the won collapsed, the overnight rate between banks reached 25.3%, and the spread of corporate over government bonds, measured in basis points, hit about 935bp⁠^{Source 7,Source 8,Source 28}. The three-year government bond rate moved in steps and stood still for months at a time, so it appears to have been administered and that gap is approximate⁠^{Source 8}. At its worst, in the third quarter of 1998, investment was 23.1% lower than a year earlier⁠^{Source 3}.

Firm data show this balance-sheet effect: small firms with more short-term foreign debt before the crisis saw their sales grow more slowly during it⁠^{Source 10}. Exports cushioned mainly the largest firms⁠^{Source 10}.

In mid-2008 Korea was still a net debtor, at −11.4% of GDP, though counting debt alone its debt claims abroad had exceeded its foreign debts since Q1 2000⁠^{Source 2,Source 5,Source 6,Source 17}. The weak spot was short-term foreign debt, which in the third quarter of 2008 reached USD 188bn, 52% of the total⁠^{Source 26,Source 27}. At 15.5% of GDP, that was the highest share in data back to 1994⁠^{Source 2,Source 6,Source 26}. This time the dollar itself surged: the broad dollar rose 17.9% between July 2008 and March 2009⁠^{Source 29}.

Foreign investors sold a net USD 29bn of Korean shares and bonds between July 2008 and March 2009⁠^{Source 30}. Even as government bond rates fell, the corporate spread widened from 103bp in July 2008 to a peak of 438bp in December 2008⁠^{Source 7,Source 8}. Exports did not rescue growth: real goods exports fell 4.5% from a year earlier in Q1 2009, and dollar export values fell 15.9% in 2009 as a whole⁠^{Source 4,Source 31}. The table below sets the five episodes side by side.

Figure 3

In 1997–98 and 2008–09 corporate bond spreads soared and investment fell; from February 1985 to April 1987 the won fell 28.0% in real terms against its main trading partners, not against the dollar, and exports boomed

Five episodes of a weak won, side by sideChanges in % from each episode's start month to the won's weakest month; growth in % from a year earlier; foreign purchases in USD bn; spread in basis points

Five episodes of a weak won, side by side
Episode	Won per $, %	Real effective, %	Broad $, %	Lowest GDP, %	Lowest investment, %	Best exports, %	Foreign buying, USD bn	Widest spread, bp
Plaza Accord, Feb 1985–Apr 1987	0.5	−28.0	–	6.8	−2.7	52.4	–	–
Asian crisis, Oct 1997–Jan 1998	85.1	−39.2	8.5	−7.1	−23.1	27.6	−1.4	935
Global crisis, Jul 2008–Mar 2009	43.5	−22.9	17.9	−2.1	−6.9	9.3	−29.0	438
Strong dollar, Dec 2021–Oct 2022	20.5	−6.6	11.2	0.7	−2.5	10.8	27.6	167
Weak won, Jan 2024–Jun 2026	15.4	−14.5	−0.9	0.2	−4.2	12.6	−14.9	75

How to read this chart. One row per episode. A positive change in won per dollar means a weaker won; a negative change in the won's real effective value (against all trading partners) also means a weaker won. 'Broad $' is the dollar against many currencies. Growth columns show the worst (or, for exports, the best) real growth from a year earlier, from the start of the episode to four quarters after it. 'Foreign buying' is foreign investors' net purchases of Korean shares and bonds; a negative value is a net sale. 'Widest spread' is the corporate bond spread over government bonds.

Episodes: Feb 1985–Apr 1987, Oct 1997–Jan 1998, Jul 2008–Mar 2009, Dec 2021–Oct 2022 and Jan 2024–Jun 2026. Changes run from the start month to the won's weakest month (1985–87: to the end of the won's real effective fall, Apr 1987). Foreign purchases are sums of monthly balance-of-payments flows into Korean shares and bonds over the same months.

The broad dollar index starts in 1994, the foreign-purchase comparison is shown from 1997 and the corporate spread series starts in 1995, so those cells are blank for the Plaza Accord. Real effective value: BIS narrow index for the Plaza Accord, broad index from 1997.

Background, as set out in the text: 1985–87, the yen's rise against the dollar; 1997–98, heavy short-term foreign debt and an overnight call rate of up to 25.3% (Jan 1998 monthly average); 2008–09, a surging dollar and short-term foreign debt at its highest share of GDP in data back to 1994; 2022, a strong dollar and margin calls on currency hedges; 2024–26, political uncertainty, an oil price jump and a chip-export boom.

In 1997–98 the three-year government bond yield looks administered: it stood at 11.65% from July to October 1997 and at about 15.0% from December 1997 to February 1998, and the spread over it was at times negative in 1996–97. The Asian-crisis widest spread, 935bp (Oct 1997–Dec 1998), is therefore approximate.

The weak-won episode's widest spread, 74.7bp, is the window's first month (Jan 2024); spreads were lower at the end of the period than at its start, though they widened again in 2026, so it is no spike.

Korean government bond yields are left out: they fell in 2008–09 and rose with US yields in 2022, so they are a poor gauge of Korea-specific stress here.

Source: Bank of Korea, ECOS; BIS via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; datasteg calculation · Data to Sep 2026^{Source 1,Source 2,Source 3,Source 4,Source 7,Source 8,Source 11,Source 19,Source 20,Source 21,Source 22,Source 26,Source 28,Source 29,Source 30,Source 32,Source 33}

About this chart

Definition: Won per US dollar, monthly averages; the won's real effective exchange rate (BIS narrow and broad indices) and the dollar's nominal broad effective rate (BIS), via FRED; real GDP and real goods exports, growth from a year earlier; real gross fixed capital formation; foreign investors' net purchases of Korean securities (balance of payments, portfolio investment liabilities); corporate bond spread = three-year AA− corporate bond rate minus three-year government bond rate.
Calculation: Changes = (end month ÷ start month − 1) × 100. Lowest and fastest growth are the extremes from the start quarter to four quarters after the end. Foreign purchases = sum of monthly flows ÷ 1,000. Widest spread = highest monthly average from the start month to Dec 1998, Jun 2009, Dec 2022 and Jun 2026 respectively. Spread = (corporate rate − government rate) × 100.
Provider: Bank of Korea, ECOS; BIS via FRED
Series: 731Y004/M/0000001/0000100, 731Y004/M/0000002/0000100, RNKRBIS, RBKRBIS, NBUSBIS, 200Y102/Q/10211, 200Y102/Q/10225, 200Y110/Q/1020110, 301Y013/M/BOPF22000000, 721Y001/M/7020000, 721Y001/M/5020000, 721Y001/M/1010000, 403Y001/M/3091AA, MCOILBRENTEU
Period: Jan 1985 – Sep 2026
Last observation: Sep 2026
Retrieved: 19 Oct 2026
Licence: ECOS Open API terms: reuse allowed with attribution; BIS via FRED: citation required
Sources: Won per US dollar, monthly average (Seoul fixing rate), Korean won, real narrow effective exchange rate (BIS), Korean won, real broad effective exchange rate (BIS), US dollar, nominal broad effective exchange rate (BIS), Korea real GDP growth, year on year (not seasonally adjusted), Korea real goods export growth, year on year (national accounts, not seasonally adjusted), Korea real gross fixed capital formation, chained 2020 won (not seasonally adjusted), Portfolio investment liabilities, net incurrence (foreign investors' net purchases of Korean securities), monthly, Korea corporate bond yield, 3-year AA-, monthly average, Korea 3-year government bond yield, monthly average, Korea short-term external debt, end of quarter, Won per 100 yen, monthly average, Korea overnight call rate (uncollateralised), monthly average, Korea semiconductor export value index (US dollar basis, customs), Brent crude oil price, Chang Yong Rhee: Korea's integrated policy framework story - extending into the effective lower bound era, Hyun Song Shin: Speech - 76th Anniversary of the Bank of Korea

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Why a cheaper won lifts exports less than expected

Before the 1997 float a cheaper won went with faster export growth a year later, but not since⁠^{Source 2,Source 4}. From 1986 to 1988 real goods exports grew 25.2% a year on average, peaking at 52.4% in Q4 1986⁠^{Source 4}. The current account, Korea's balance of trade and income with the world, swung from a deficit of 2.1% of GDP in 1985 to a surplus of 6.2% in 1988⁠^{Source 34,Source 35}.

From February 1985 to April 1987, around the Plaza Accord, won per dollar weakened in 1985 and then came back, ending about where it started (+0.5%)⁠^{Source 2}. Over the same period the yen came to cost 82.7% more won⁠^{Source 11}. Exports then kept growing fast into early 1988 even as the won strengthened against the dollar⁠^{Source 2,Source 4}.

In 2025, 84.2% of Korean exports were settled in dollars, a practice called dollar invoicing⁠^{Source 12}, and big exporters set prices market by market⁠^{Source 13}. Research across many countries finds that the relative prices of goods traded between two countries, other than commodities, barely move with the exchange rate between their currencies⁠^{Source 36}. From October 1997 to January 1998 export prices rose 69.3% in won but fell only 4.8% in the currencies buyers paid⁠^{Source 14,Source 15}. From December 2021 to October 2022 they rose 16.0% in won and fell just 1.6%, as the chart below shows⁠^{Source 14,Source 15}. From July 2008 to March 2009, amid the global slump, prices in buyers' currencies fell 25.0%, so that episode does not isolate exporters' pricing choices⁠^{Source 15}.

Figure 4

From October 1997 to January 1998 and from December 2021 to October 2022, Korean export prices jumped in won but barely fell in the currencies buyers pay: up 69.3% against down 4.8%, and up 16.0% against down 1.6%

Change in Korea's export prices in won and in contract currency, by episodeExport price index, % change from each episode's start month to the won's weakest month against the dollar (1985–87: to the end of the won's real effective fall, Apr 1987)

How to read this chart. The filled dot is the change in export prices measured in won, the hollow dot the change in the currency of the contract, mostly dollars. The gap between them is roughly the won's fall: the wider it is, the more of the weaker won exporters kept as higher won revenue instead of cutting prices abroad.

Contract-currency prices also move with world prices: they fell from July 2008 to March 2009 with the global slump and rose from January 2024 to June 2026, so those rows don't isolate pricing choices. From February 1985 to April 1987 won per dollar ended about where it started, so the dots sit close.

Episodes run from the start month to the won's weakest monthly average against the dollar (1985–87: to the end of the won's real effective fall): Feb 1985–Apr 1987, Oct 1997–Jan 1998, Jul 2008–Mar 2009, Dec 2021–Oct 2022 and Jan 2024–Jun 2026. The change in won per dollar over each episode is in the table view.

Source: Bank of Korea, ECOS; datasteg calculation · Data to Jun 2026^{Source 2,Source 14,Source 15}

About this chart

Definition: Export price index, all items (2020 = 100), on a won basis and on a contract-currency basis; won per US dollar, monthly averages.
Calculation: Change = (index in the end month ÷ index in the start month − 1) × 100, for each basis. End month = the month of the won's weakest monthly average against the dollar in each episode (1985–87: Apr 1987, the end of the won's real effective fall).
Provider: Bank of Korea, ECOS
Series: 402Y014/M/*AA/W, 402Y014/M/*AA/C, 731Y004/M/0000001/0000100
Period: Feb 1985 – Jun 2026
Last observation: Jun 2026
Retrieved: 19 Oct 2026
Licence: ECOS Open API terms: reuse allowed with attribution
Sources: Korea export price index, all items, won basis, Korea export price index, all items, contract-currency basis, Won per US dollar, monthly average (Seoul fixing rate)

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Volumes respond slowly: Korea's export volumes react little to the exchange rate in the short run⁠^{Source 37}. The yen's price in won fell 40% between October 2011 and June 2015; an IMF study of the move up to early 2015 found exporters had passed little of it into prices and volumes barely responded⁠^{Source 11,Source 37}.

Another BIS study finds that how much a country invoices in dollars makes little difference to the damage a stronger dollar does⁠^{Source 38}. In 2025 Chang Yong Rhee, then Governor of the Bank of Korea, said a weaker won now brings Korea smaller export gains⁠^{Source 19}.

A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot

Korea's foreign debt is now less short-term and more than covered by its debt claims abroad, but a falling won can still tighten its finances. It became a net creditor, owning more abroad than it owes, in Q3 2014⁠^{Source 2,Source 5,Source 6}. Counting debt alone, its debt claims on the rest of the world exceeded its foreign debts by 18.0% of GDP in mid-2026. At the end of 1997 its foreign debts exceeded those claims by 10.7% of GDP⁠^{Source 2,Source 6,Source 17}. Its gross foreign debt is 39.9% of GDP, but less of it is due within a year: 24%, against 48% in the second quarter of 1997⁠^{Source 6,Source 26,Source 27}.

The wider net position, which includes shares, peaked at 57.8% of GDP at the end of 2024 and was 54.2% in mid-2025, in line with Bank of Korea economists' estimate⁠^{Source 2,Source 5,Source 6,Source 16}. It fell to 3.1% by mid-2026, most of it in the second quarter of 2026, from 38.5% at the end of March (preliminary figures)⁠^{Source 2,Source 5,Source 6}. The reason is that foreign-owned Korean shares, which count as what Korea owes, rose in value: by 82% in that quarter alone, to 4.2 times their end-2024 level, a rise that more than accounts for the fall⁠^{Source 18}. That is a paper effect of rising share prices, not new borrowing: in the chart below, net claims in debt barely move while the overall position falls.

Figure 5

Korea's net international investment position was negative in the 1997 and 2008 crises, turned positive in 2014 and fell to 3.1% of GDP in mid-2026 (preliminary) as foreign-held Korean shares rose in value

Korea's external position and short-term foreign debt% of GDP, end of quarter, Q4 1994–Q2 2026

How to read this chart. Above zero, Korea's claims on the rest of the world exceed what it owes. The overall net position counts shares as well as debt; net claims in debt leave shares out. The short-term debt line is foreign debt due within a year.

The overall net position fell from 57.8% of GDP at end-2024 to 3.1% in mid-2026 (preliminary) because Korean shares held by foreigners rose in market value (a liability at market prices), a rise that more than accounts for the fall, not because Korea borrowed more.

GDP is the sum of the last four quarters, converted to dollars at each quarter's average won-dollar rate. Gross external debt (39.9% of GDP in mid-2026) is in the text; foreign exchange reserves are not in this chart.

Source: Bank of Korea, ECOS; datasteg calculation · Data to Q2 2026^{Source 2,Source 5,Source 6,Source 16,Source 17,Source 26}

About this chart

Definition: Net international investment position (external financial assets minus liabilities, including shares at market value); net external claims in debt instruments (external claims minus external debt); short-term external debt (original maturity of a year or less); all as % of GDP.
Calculation: Each series in USD million ÷ GDP in USD million × 100, where GDP = sum of the last four quarters of nominal GDP in won ÷ each quarter's average won-dollar rate.
Provider: Bank of Korea, ECOS
Series: 311Y001/Q/3000000, 311Y006/Q/C000000, 311Y004/Q/A500000, 200Y107/Q/10601, 731Y004/M/0000001/0000100
Period: Q4 1994 – Q2 2026
Last observation: Q2 2026
Retrieved: 19 Oct 2026
Licence: ECOS Open API terms: reuse allowed with attribution
Sources: Korea net international investment position (net foreign financial assets), end of quarter, Korea nominal GDP, seasonally adjusted, quarterly, Won per US dollar, monthly average (Seoul fixing rate), Korea net external claims (debt instruments only: external claims minus external debt), end of quarter, Korea short-term external debt, end of quarter, Capital flows, exchange rates and financial conditions in EMEs in an evolving international monetary system

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Bank of Korea economists conclude that the old channel has weakened since Korea became a creditor⁠^{Source 16}:

“With this structural shift, the traditional transmission channel of external shocks observed during the net debtor period has notably attenuated.”
— BIS, 2026⁠^{Source 16}

Korean finance remains highly sensitive to global conditions, they add⁠^{Source 16}. From December 2021 to October 2022, won per dollar rose 20.5% as the broad dollar climbed 11.2%⁠^{Source 2,Source 29}. Yet Korea's 10-year government bond rate rose less than America's, 208bp against 251bp, and foreigners bought a net USD 32bn of Korean bonds over those months⁠^{Source 39,Source 40,Source 41}.

Part of the strain came through currency hedges: when the won falls fast, holders of currency hedges that lose value must post extra cash, a margin call, and in September 2022 Korean banks paid far more than usual⁠^{Source 16,Source 19}. To raise it they sold won securities and issued bonds, adding upward pressure on market interest rates⁠^{Source 16}. The corporate spread, which nets out government bond rates, also widened over the year, from 61bp in December 2021 to 167bp in December 2022⁠^{Source 7,Source 8}. The sources we read do not measure how much of that rise the margin calls caused.

The weak won from January 2024 to June 2026 was different again: over those months the broad dollar ended almost where it started (−0.9%), while won per dollar rose 15.4%⁠^{Source 2,Source 29}. The won fell amid political uncertainty around the turn of 2025⁠^{Source 19}. The period also saw an oil price jump of 88% from December 2025 to April 2026⁠^{Source 33}. Growth was 3.7% in Q2 2026, alongside a 186% rise in chip export values from a year earlier⁠^{Source 1,Source 32}. In June 2026 Governor Shin tied the recent pick-up in growth to chip exports driven by AI demand, so the won's own part cannot be separated⁠^{Source 22}.

Our read

Korea's record does not show that a weak won made the economy strong: most quarters of falling GDP came with a weaker won. In the two sharpest falls of the won, heavy short-term foreign debts⁠^{Source 2,Source 6,Source 26} went with soaring corporate bond spreads⁠^{Source 7,Source 8}, the tightening of financial conditions Shin describes⁠^{Source 23}; in 1997–98 small firms with more short-term foreign debt fared worse⁠^{Source 10}. Exports grew faster a year after a weaker won only before 1998. From February 1985 to April 1987 the yen came to cost 82.7% more won while won per dollar, after weakening in 1985, ended about where it started (+0.5%)⁠^{Source 2,Source 4,Source 11}. Bank of Korea economists found, with data to mid-2025, that being a creditor had blunted the old channel⁠^{Source 16}, though the overall net position had shrunk to 3.1% of GDP by mid-2026 (preliminary figures)⁠^{Source 2,Source 5,Source 6}. Yet 2022 showed a fast fall in the won can still tighten Korean finance through hedging⁠^{Source 16}, and no study we read estimates both channels together for Korea alone⁠^{Source 24,Source 25}.

Terms in this article

spread: The extra interest one borrower pays over a benchmark borrower on debt of the same maturity, usually measured in basis points.Here: mostly what Korean companies pay over the Korean government on bonds of the same maturity.
real effective exchange rate: A currency's value against a basket of trading partners' currencies, weighted by trade and adjusted for differences in inflation. A fall means the currency has become cheaper against partners as a whole.
trade channel: The way a weaker currency can help an economy through trade: exporters earn more in local currency or can cut their prices abroad, and imports become dearer.
financial channel: The way a weaker currency against the dollar can hurt an economy through finance: borrowers with dollar debts look less creditworthy, so lenders lend less and financial conditions tighten.
broad dollar index: The US dollar's value against the currencies of many trading partners at once. A rise means the dollar has strengthened against the world as a whole.
net international investment position: What a country's residents own abroad minus what foreigners own in that country. A negative position means foreigners own more of the country than it owns of the rest of the world.Here: Korean shares held by foreigners count as a liability at market value, so rising share prices lower the position without new borrowing.
basis point: A hundredth of a percentage point, the usual unit for small gaps and changes in interest rates.
balance-sheet effect: When a currency falls, debts owed in foreign currency grow in local-currency terms while income may not, weakening borrowers' finances and their ability to borrow and invest.
dollar invoicing: Setting the price of traded goods in US dollars, even when neither trading partner is the United States. Prices abroad then move little when the exporter's own currency changes.
margin call: A broker's demand for more cash or collateral when shares bought with borrowed money have fallen too far in value. If the investor cannot pay, the broker sells the shares, a forced sale.Here: extra cash owed on currency hedges, such as forwards and swaps, that lose value when the won falls, as for Korean banks in 2022.

References

Research

9
Avdjiev, S., Bruno, V., Koch, C. and Shin, H. S. (2018). The dollar exchange rate as a global risk factor: evidence from investment. BIS Working Papers 695. BIS
Read the source ↗PDF ↗Cited in: ↑ Key findings, ↑ What Shin's research says
10
Kim, Y. J., Tesar, L. and Zhang, J. (2012). The Impact of Foreign Liabilities on Small Firms: Firm-Level Evidence from the Korean Crisis. NBER Working Papers w17756. NBER
Read the source ↗PDF ↗Cited in: ↑ Key findings, ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ Our read
13
Irwin, D. A. and Obstfeld, M. (2024). Understanding Korea’s Long-Run Real Exchange Rate Behavior. NBER Working Papers w32769. NBER
Read the source ↗PDF ↗Cited in: ↑ Key findings, ↑ Five episodes of a weak won, ↑ Why a cheaper won lifts exports less than expected
16
Kim, J. and Kim, M. (Bank of Korea chapter: The expanding role of NBFIs in transmitting global financial conditions - the case of Korea) (2026). Capital flows, exchange rates and financial conditions in EMEs in an evolving international monetary system. BIS Papers 171. BIS
Read the source ↗PDF ↗Cited in: ↑ Key findings, ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot, ↑ Our read
24
Kearns, J. and Patel, N. (2016). Does the financial channel of exchange rates offset the trade channel?. BIS Quarterly Review December 2016. BIS
Read the source ↗PDF ↗Cited in: ↑ What Shin's research says, ↑ Our read
25
Bruno, V., Kim, S.-J. and Shin, H. S. (2018). Exchange rates and the working capital channel of trade fluctuations. BIS Working Papers 694. BIS
Read the source ↗PDF ↗Cited in: ↑ What Shin's research says, ↑ Our read
36
Boz, E., Gopinath, G. and Plagborg-Møller, M. (2017). Global Trade and the Dollar. IMF Working Papers 2017/239. IMF
Read the source ↗PDF ↗Cited in: ↑ Why a cheaper won lifts exports less than expected
37
Ree, J., Hong, G. H. and Choi, S. (2015). Should Korea Worry about a Permanently Weak Yen?. IMF Working Papers 2015/158. IMF
Read the source ↗PDF ↗Cited in: ↑ Why a cheaper won lifts exports less than expected
38
Hofmann, B. and Park, T. (2020). The broad dollar exchange rate as an EME risk factor. BIS Quarterly Review December 2020. BIS
Read the source ↗PDF ↗Cited in: ↑ Why a cheaper won lifts exports less than expected

Speeches and statements

19
Rhee, C. Y. (Governor, Bank of Korea; Camdessus Lecture, IMF, 18 September 2025) (2025). Chang Yong Rhee: Korea's integrated policy framework story - extending into the effective lower bound era. Central bank speeches (BIS). Bank of Korea
Read the source ↗PDF ↗Cited in: ↑ Key findings, ↑ Five episodes of a weak won, ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ Why a cheaper won lifts exports less than expected, ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot
22
Shin, H. S. (Governor of the Bank of Korea, Seoul, 12 June 2026) (2026). Hyun Song Shin: Speech - 76th Anniversary of the Bank of Korea. BIS central bankers' speeches. Bank of Korea
Read the source ↗PDF ↗Cited in: ↑ What Shin's research says, ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot
23
Shin, H. S. (speech at the Bank of Korea-IMF conference, Seoul, 11 December 2015) (2015). Exchange rates and the transmission of global liquidity. BIS management speeches. BIS
Read the source ↗PDF ↗Cited in: ↑ What Shin's research says, ↑ Our read

Data

1
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea real GDP growth, year on year (not seasonally adjusted). 200Y102/Q/10211. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “주요지표(분기지표)” or its code 200Y102 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 2. 국민계정 > 2.1. 국민소득통계(2020년 기준년) > 2.1.1. 주요지표 > 2.1.1.2. 주요지표(분기지표). In the table, select 계정항목: 국내총생산(GDP)(실질, 원계열, 전년동기비). Set the cycle (주기) to quarterly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Key numbers, ↑ Key findings, ↑ Weak-won quarters were slower quarters, ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot
2
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Won per US dollar, monthly average (Seoul fixing rate). 731Y004/M/0000001/0000100. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “주요국 통화의 대원화환율” or its code 731Y004 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 3. 환율/통관수출입/외환보유액 > 3.1. 환율 > 3.1.2. 평균환율/기말환율 > 3.1.2.1. 주요국 통화의 대원화환율. In the table, select 계정항목: 원/미국달러(매매기준율); 측정항목: 평균자료. Set the cycle (주기) to monthly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Key numbers, ↑ Key findings, ↑ Five episodes of a weak won, ↑ Weak-won quarters were slower quarters, ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ Why a cheaper won lifts exports less than expected, ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot, ↑ Our read
3
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea real gross fixed capital formation, chained 2020 won (not seasonally adjusted). 200Y110/Q/1020110. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “국내총생산에 대한 지출(원계열, 실질, 분기 및 연간)” or its code 200Y110 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 2. 국민계정 > 2.1. 국민소득통계(2020년 기준년) > 2.1.2. 생산, 지출 및 분배 GDP, GDP 디플레이터 > 2.1.2.2. 국내총생산에 대한 지출 > 2.1.2.2.4. 국내총생산에 대한 지출(원계열, 실질, 분기 및 연간). In the table, select 계정항목: 총고정자본형성. Set the cycle (주기) to quarterly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Key numbers, ↑ Key findings, ↑ Weak-won quarters were slower quarters, ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story
4
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea real goods export growth, year on year (national accounts, not seasonally adjusted). 200Y102/Q/10225. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “주요지표(분기지표)” or its code 200Y102 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 2. 국민계정 > 2.1. 국민소득통계(2020년 기준년) > 2.1.1. 주요지표 > 2.1.1.2. 주요지표(분기지표). In the table, select 계정항목: 재화수출. Set the cycle (주기) to quarterly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Key findings, ↑ Weak-won quarters were slower quarters, ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ Why a cheaper won lifts exports less than expected, ↑ Our read
5
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea net international investment position (net foreign financial assets), end of quarter. 311Y001/Q/3000000. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “국제투자대조표(IIP)” or its code 311Y001 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 2. 국민계정 > 2.6. 국제투자대조표/대외채권채무 > 2.6.1. 국제투자대조표 > 2.6.1.1. 국제투자대조표(IIP). In the table, select 계정코드: 순대외금융자산. Set the cycle (주기) to quarterly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Key findings, ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot, ↑ Our read
6
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea nominal GDP, seasonally adjusted, quarterly. 200Y107/Q/10601. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “국내총생산에 대한 지출(계절조정, 명목, 분기)” or its code 200Y107 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 2. 국민계정 > 2.1. 국민소득통계(2020년 기준년) > 2.1.2. 생산, 지출 및 분배 GDP, GDP 디플레이터 > 2.1.2.2. 국내총생산에 대한 지출 > 2.1.2.2.1. 국내총생산에 대한 지출(계절조정, 명목, 분기). In the table, select 계정항목: 국내총생산에 대한 지출. Set the cycle (주기) to quarterly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Key findings, ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot, ↑ Our read
7
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea corporate bond yield, 3-year AA-, monthly average. 721Y001/M/7020000. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “시장금리(월,분기,년)” or its code 721Y001 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 1. 통화/금융 > 1.3. 금리 > 1.3.2. 시장금리 > 1.3.2.2. 시장금리(월,분기,년). In the table, select 계정항목: 회사채(3년, AA-). Set the cycle (주기) to monthly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Key findings, ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot, ↑ Our read
8
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea 3-year government bond yield, monthly average. 721Y001/M/5020000. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “시장금리(월,분기,년)” or its code 721Y001 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 1. 통화/금융 > 1.3. 금리 > 1.3.2. 시장금리 > 1.3.2.2. 시장금리(월,분기,년). In the table, select 계정항목: 국고채(3년). Set the cycle (주기) to monthly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Key findings, ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot, ↑ Our read
11
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Won per 100 yen, monthly average. 731Y004/M/0000002/0000100. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “주요국 통화의 대원화환율” or its code 731Y004 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 3. 환율/통관수출입/외환보유액 > 3.1. 환율 > 3.1.2. 평균환율/기말환율 > 3.1.2.1. 주요국 통화의 대원화환율. In the table, select 계정항목: 원/일본엔(100엔); 측정항목: 평균자료. Set the cycle (주기) to monthly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Key findings, ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ Why a cheaper won lifts exports less than expected, ↑ Our read
12
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Share of Korean exports settled in US dollars, annual. 303Y001/A/REGEXTOTUSD/RATIO. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “지역별 결제통화(수출)” or its code 303Y001 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 3. 환율/통관수출입/외환보유액 > 3.2. 통관기준 수출입 > 3.2.5. 결제통화별 수출입 > 3.2.5.1. 결제통화별 수출 > 3.2.5.1.1. 지역별 결제통화(수출). In the table, select 계정코드: 달러 (전체); 금액 비중 구분: 비중(%). Set the cycle (주기) to annual, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Key findings, ↑ Why a cheaper won lifts exports less than expected
14
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea export price index, all items, won basis. 402Y014/M/*AA/W. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “수출물가지수(기본분류)” or its code 402Y014 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 4. 물가 > 4.3. 수출/수입물가지수(2020=100) > 4.3.1. 수출물가지수 > 4.3.1.1. 수출물가지수(기본분류). In the table, select 계정코드: 총지수; 통화계약구분코드: 원화기준. Set the cycle (주기) to monthly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Key findings, ↑ Why a cheaper won lifts exports less than expected
15
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea export price index, all items, contract-currency basis. 402Y014/M/*AA/C. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “수출물가지수(기본분류)” or its code 402Y014 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 4. 물가 > 4.3. 수출/수입물가지수(2020=100) > 4.3.1. 수출물가지수 > 4.3.1.1. 수출물가지수(기본분류). In the table, select 계정코드: 총지수; 통화계약구분코드: 계약통화기준. Set the cycle (주기) to monthly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Key findings, ↑ Why a cheaper won lifts exports less than expected
17
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea net external claims (debt instruments only: external claims minus external debt), end of quarter. 311Y006/Q/C000000. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “순대외채권” or its code 311Y006 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 2. 국민계정 > 2.6. 국제투자대조표/대외채권채무 > 2.6.2. 대외채무/채권 > 2.6.2.3. 순대외채권. In the table, select 계정코드: 순대외채권. Set the cycle (주기) to quarterly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Key findings, ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot
18
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea external liabilities: portfolio equity held by non-residents, market value, end of quarter. 311Y001/Q/2020100. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “국제투자대조표(IIP)” or its code 311Y001 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 2. 국민계정 > 2.6. 국제투자대조표/대외채권채무 > 2.6.1. 국제투자대조표 > 2.6.1.1. 국제투자대조표(IIP). In the table, select 계정코드: 지분증권. Set the cycle (주기) to quarterly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Key findings, ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot
20
FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Korean won, real narrow effective exchange rate (BIS). RNKRBIS. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: The link opens the FRED series RNKRBIS directly. Use “Edit Graph” to change the dates or units, and “Download” for the data.
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Five episodes of a weak won, ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story
21
FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Korean won, real broad effective exchange rate (BIS). RBKRBIS. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: The link opens the FRED series RBKRBIS directly. Use “Edit Graph” to change the dates or units, and “Download” for the data.
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Five episodes of a weak won, ↑ Weak-won quarters were slower quarters, ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story
26
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea short-term external debt, end of quarter. 311Y004/Q/A500000. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “대외채무” or its code 311Y004 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 2. 국민계정 > 2.6. 국제투자대조표/대외채권채무 > 2.6.2. 대외채무/채권 > 2.6.2.1. 대외채무. In the table, select 계정코드: 1.단기. Set the cycle (주기) to quarterly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot, ↑ Our read
27
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea gross external debt, total, end of quarter. 311Y004/Q/A000000. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “대외채무” or its code 311Y004 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 2. 국민계정 > 2.6. 국제투자대조표/대외채권채무 > 2.6.2. 대외채무/채권 > 2.6.2.1. 대외채무. In the table, select 계정코드: 대외채무 . Set the cycle (주기) to quarterly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot
28
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea overnight call rate (uncollateralised), monthly average. 721Y001/M/1010000. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “시장금리(월,분기,년)” or its code 721Y001 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 1. 통화/금융 > 1.3. 금리 > 1.3.2. 시장금리 > 1.3.2.2. 시장금리(월,분기,년). In the table, select 계정항목: 무담보콜금리(1일). Set the cycle (주기) to monthly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story
29
FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. US dollar, nominal broad effective exchange rate (BIS). NBUSBIS. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: The link opens the FRED series NBUSBIS directly. Use “Edit Graph” to change the dates or units, and “Download” for the data.
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot
30
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Portfolio investment liabilities, net incurrence (foreign investors' net purchases of Korean securities), monthly. 301Y013/M/BOPF22000000. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “국제수지” or its code 301Y013 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 2. 국민계정 > 2.5. 국제수지표 > 2.5.1. 국제수지 > 2.5.1.1. 국제수지. In the table, select 국제수지(BPM6): 증권투자(부채). Set the cycle (주기) to monthly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story
31
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea goods exports, balance of payments basis, monthly. 301Y013/M/110000. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “국제수지” or its code 301Y013 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 2. 국민계정 > 2.5. 국제수지표 > 2.5.1. 국제수지 > 2.5.1.1. 국제수지. In the table, select 국제수지(BPM6): 상품수출. Set the cycle (주기) to monthly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story
32
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea semiconductor export value index (US dollar basis, customs). 403Y001/M/3091AA. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “수출금액지수” or its code 403Y001 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 3. 환율/통관수출입/외환보유액 > 3.3. 무역지수/교역조건지수(2020=100) > 3.3.1. 수출입 금액/물량지수 > 3.3.1.1. 수출 금액/물량지수 > 3.3.1.1.1. 수출금액지수. In the table, select 계정코드: 반도체. Set the cycle (주기) to monthly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot
33
FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Brent crude oil price. MCOILBRENTEU. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: The link opens the FRED series MCOILBRENTEU directly. Use “Edit Graph” to change the dates or units, and “Download” for the data.
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story, ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot
34
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea current account balance, monthly. 301Y013/M/000000. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “국제수지” or its code 301Y013 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 2. 국민계정 > 2.5. 국제수지표 > 2.5.1. 국제수지 > 2.5.1.1. 국제수지. In the table, select 국제수지(BPM6): 경상수지. Set the cycle (주기) to monthly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Why a cheaper won lifts exports less than expected
35
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea nominal GDP in US dollars, annual. 200Y101/A/1010101. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “주요지표(연간지표)” or its code 200Y101 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 2. 국민계정 > 2.1. 국민소득통계(2020년 기준년) > 2.1.1. 주요지표 > 2.1.1.1. 주요지표(연간지표). In the table, select 계정항목: 국내총생산(명목, 달러표시). Set the cycle (주기) to annual, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ Why a cheaper won lifts exports less than expected
39
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Korea 10-year government bond yield, monthly average. 721Y001/M/5050000. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “시장금리(월,분기,년)” or its code 721Y001 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 1. 통화/금융 > 1.3. 금리 > 1.3.2. 시장금리 > 1.3.2.2. 시장금리(월,분기,년). In the table, select 계정항목: 국고채(10년). Set the cycle (주기) to monthly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot
40
FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. US 10-year Treasury yield. GS10. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: The link opens the FRED series GS10 directly. Use “Edit Graph” to change the dates or units, and “Download” for the data.
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot
41
Bank of Korea, ECOS. Portfolio investment liabilities, debt securities (foreign investors' net purchases of Korean bonds), monthly. 301Y013/M/BOPF22200000. Retrieved 19 Oct 2026.
Finding the series: On ECOS (ecos.bok.or.kr), open 통계검색 (Statistics search) and type the table name “국제수지” or its code 301Y013 in the search box, or follow the statistics list 2. 국민계정 > 2.5. 국제수지표 > 2.5.1. 국제수지 > 2.5.1.1. 국제수지. In the table, select 국제수지(BPM6): 부채성증권(부채). Set the cycle (주기) to monthly, choose the period, and click 조회 (Search).
Data source ↗Cited in: ↑ A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot

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If you use this article in research, a report or the news, please cite it as follows.

datasteg (2026), “Korea's economy grew more slowly, not faster, when the won weakened against the dollar”, datasteg articles, 20 October 2026, https://articles.datasteg.com/en/a/won-exports-financial-channel.

BibTeX

@online{datasteg:won-exports-financial-channel,
  author       = {{datasteg}},
  title        = {Korea's economy grew more slowly, not faster, when the won weakened against the dollar},
  organization = {datasteg articles},
  date         = {2026-10-20},
  url          = {https://articles.datasteg.com/en/a/won-exports-financial-channel}
}

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Key numbers

Key findings

The question

Five episodes of a weak won

Weak-won quarters were slower quarters

What Shin's research says

When the won fell hardest, debt was part of the story

Why a cheaper won lifts exports less than expected

A creditor Korea, with a new weak spot

Terms in this article

References

Research

Speeches and statements

Data

Related reading

Cite this article