Format

Explainers

One reader question, answered with research and data

Stock markets

Korea's stock swings start with two chipmakers and grow with leveraged bets on them

Since February Korean share prices have moved 4.6 times as much a month as US ones while world markets stayed calm, and the data and research point less to foreign investors or margin loans than to a real chip boom in two stocks, magnified by products whose hedging buys into rises and sells into falls.

31 Oct 2026 · 12 min read

16 indicators10 papers4 charts

Korean won

The won's rise came before the rate hold, not after it

Nearly all of the won's gain since its July low came before the Bank of Korea held rates on 22 October, and in January–August the current account brought in 2.8 times as many dollars as foreigners took out of Korean stocks.

23 Oct 2026 · 12 min read

21 indicators11 papers5 charts

Monetary policy

The record backs Warsh on 2021 and 2013 but not against forward guidance as such

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says forward guidance outside a crisis can lead markets astray and bond-buying should be kept for genuine crises. The 2021 delay and the 2013 taper tantrum bear him out, while the 2022 liftoff, the research on guidance design and the dot plot still published under him cut the other way.

21 Oct 2026 · 15 min read

12 indicators16 papers4 charts

Sovereign debt

France's borrowing premium over Germany is its widest since 2012, but this is not 2011

In September France paid 97bp more than Germany to borrow for ten years, the widest gap since 2012, yet most of its higher borrowing cost is shared with Germany, as long-term borrowing costs rose across rich economies.

20 Oct 2026 · 11 min read

11 indicators14 papers4 charts

Global capital

Foreigners poured money into US stocks, yet buying built little of the rise in their pile

In the year to June 2026 foreigners bought $1.79 trillion of US securities and sold a net $104 billion of Korean stocks, yet new buying built only a small part of the rise in their US stock pile.

20 Oct 2026 · 12 min read

23 indicators12 papers5 charts

Stock markets

Korea's 2026 stock plunge came after its biggest boom in decades, not a global panic

After rising 209% in two years, the most since December 1988, Korean share prices fell 21.6% by August in monthly averages, and again in October; the BIS ties the fall to early September to exposure to AI-linked firms and turmoil in a few leveraged vehicles, crowded into two chipmakers, while world markets stayed calm and news mood was upbeat at the peak.

20 Oct 2026 · 14 min read

8 indicators12 papers3 charts

Exchange rates

Korea's economy grew more slowly, not faster, when the won weakened against the dollar

Since 1998, with the won floating, Korea's GDP grew 2.0% a year on average in quarters when the won was weaker than a year earlier, against 5.1% when it was stronger, while Hyun Song Shin's research shows how a weaker currency can also hurt through finance.

20 Oct 2026 · 14 min read

29 indicators9 papers4 charts